This is a special year for the Academy Awards for me because this is the first time in years that I plan on watching the whole show instead of just watching clips the next day, and that’s solely because Conan O’Brien is hosting. I’m a huge Conan fan, and I know he’ll bring some of his weird ass humor to the event. In general, I find the Oscars to be a tough watch, but I think he’ll add some much needed silliness to the whole affair.
As for the movies themselves, I thought this was a good year for film. I need to stop writing that, though, because so many movies come out each year it’s kind of hard for there to be a “bad” year for film. I suppose there are times when the big awards movies don’t jive with my tastes, but since they’ve expanded the amount of nominees and the membership of the Academy, that’s been more and more rare.
For this year, four of the nominees for Best Picture were on my personal top ten list, and I enjoyed all the nominees, even if some weren’t exactly my thing. I was mainly excited that my favorite film of the year, A Complete Unknown, received so much love, and hopefully it takes home a few awards.
But who knows? The other aspect that the expanded membership has added is uncertainty. In years past, it was fairly easy to predict most of the main winners, especially Best Picture. Worst case scenario you could narrow it down to two films. Now, it’s wide open. I’ve seen clickbait articles making the argument for four different possible winners this year, and I personally don’t know what to pick. As I type this, I plan on just going with my gut when I get to the prediction part of the article.
The uncertainty makes the prediction process much more difficult, but it makes the show itself immensely more interesting. So I’m looking forward to a few surprises and a lot of silly shit from Conan.
As usual, I’ll make my prediction, pick my favorite of the nominees, and also name my favorite overall (in the case that my favorite wasn’t nominated at all).
For a full list of nominees, click here. Or, you know, just Google it, you psycho.
Cinematography
Prediction: The Brutalist
Pick and Favorite: Nosferatu
Original Score
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: The Brutalist
I also loved the Challengers score, and I cannot believe it wasn’t nominated.
Original Song
Prediction: Elton John
I don’t know how much the Emilia Pérez fallout and double nomination will affect this category, so I’m going with the safe Elton John choice. I have no favorite here because I didn’t listen to most of these, and I think this is a stupid category, in general. I would rather see a Best Use of Music in a Movie that could reward the best needle drops of pre-existing music.
Visual Effects
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: Dune: Part Two
Dune: Part Two deserves something, right?
Original Screenplay
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: The Substance
Hoping for a surprise with this one.
Adapted Screenplay
Prediction: Nickel Boys
Pick and Favorite: A Complete Unknown
Documentary
Prediction: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Full disclosure: this category is a huge blindspot for me each year, as I just can’t find the time to watch most, or, as was the case this year, any of these nominees.
Animated Feature
Prediction: Flow
Pick and Favorite: Memoir of a Snail
International Feature
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: I’m Still Here
Supporting Actor
Prediction: Kieran Culkin
Pick and Favorite: Edward Norton
Supporting Actress
Prediction: Zoe Saldaña
Pick: Monica Barbaro
Favorite: Margaret Qualley
Actor
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: Timothée Chalamet
Fingers crossed that the AI-enchanced accent shit with The Brutalist gives Chalamet the edge.
Actress
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: Demi Moore
Director
Prediction: Brady Corbet
Pick and Favorite: Coralie Fargeat
Picture:
Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: A Complete Unknown
Okay, this is just wishful thinking. But I did hear about this weighted voting thing they’re doing, and there’s a chance that The Brutalist and Anora are either really high or really low on a lot of lists while A Complete Unknown could be in the top three on a lot of ballots giving it the win. Probably not, but I want to see it win. I feel like I’m way off this year, though. I could see Brody winning, and Anora taking Actress, Director, and Picture. Or maybe it’s Conclave. Nothing would surprise me.
So that’s that. Follow along and see how badly I did this Sunday! But who knows? Last year, I went 13 for 15, so maybe I'm on a roll with these.
And, as always: Hi, Mom!
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