And the Oscar (Maybe, Probably Not) Goes To...

*This is the article I annually write for my local newspaper. I'm including it on my website this year. Also, I got lazy and just wrote the movie title for the screenplay awards instead of writing out each nominee.

The Academy Awards are this Sunday, so it’s time for my annual article weighing in on the nominees and predicting the winners. This year is a bit different for two reasons. First, I disagree with these nominations more than ever before. I know my tastes are hardly mainstream, but only one film out of my top ten (Black Panther) was nominated for Best Picture. Some of my honorable mentions are there, but I can’t get over the lack of respect shown for First Reformed, You Were Never Really Here, and Annihilation. But then again, it took me a while to come up with my top ten list because very few movies clicked with me last year, so maybe the Academy members went through the same issue.

Second, speaking of Academy members, they added a ton of them since the #OscarsSoWhite controversy a couple of years ago, so predicting the winners is getting harder each year. Add to that the fact that there is no clear front runner, or even a clear head-to-head race, and you have a perfect storm of uncertainty. I know I point out that I’m not all that great at predicting the winners every year in this article, but I sincerely mean it when I say I’m blindly guessing with a few of these. Normally, I am aware of a clear favorite for nearly every category, and there’s one, maybe two other possibilities. This year, it truly seems like anything and anyone could win in every category.

That written, I’m still going to try. And even if I’m not crazy about all the nominees this year, I didn’t find any of them to be bad movies. I was just disappointed by many of them. I expected a transcendent experience watching Roma. I thought Rami Malek would make me believe he was Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. I was sure Vice was going to make me laugh, infuriate me with its exposure of the truth, and give me Christian Bale’s greatest performance yet. You get the idea: I did not get a strong reaction from most of these films. I did like most of them, however. Black Panther is my favorite of the bunch, but I also enjoyed A Star Is Born, The Favourite, and BlacKkKlansman. With all my complaining out of the way, here are my predictions in the usual format: my prediction, my pick from the nominees, and my favorite overall (including unnominated movies and people).

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, and Vice

My prediction: The Favourite

My pick and favorite: First Reformed

The screenplay categories have become the spots for voters to reward movies they like a lot but don’t want to give Best Picture to. This is why it’s likely The Favourite will win. A lot of voters loved the twisted historical film, but it’s probably too weird to win Best Picture, so they’ll just give it Best Original Screenplay, even though First Reformed deserves it so much more.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star Is Born

My prediction and pick: BlacKkKlansman

My favorite: Annihilation

Just like with Original Screenplay, I think the Academy will use this category to reward a film without giving it Best Picture. In this case, I think it has a lot to do with Spike Lee. I don’t think he’ll win Best Director, but I think they still want to honor him with Best Adapted Screenplay.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite, Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman, Adam McKay, Vice, and Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

My prediction: Alfonso Cuarón

My pick: Yorgos Lanthimos

My favorite: Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)

Filmmakers and critics have been very vocal about their love for Roma this year, mainly focusing on Cuarón’s direction. The words “genius” and “masterpiece” are commonplace when this film is brought up, so he’s one of the few safe bets this year. I was just happy to see Lanthimos get nominated, though I think his previous work (The Lobster, Dogtooth) is more impressive. And Pawlikowski getting nominated instead of Paul Schrader or Lynne Ramsay is ridiculous.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice, Marina de Tavira, Roma, Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk, Emma Stone, The Favourite, and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

My prediction, pick, and favorite: Regina King

This is another category that is one of the few safe bets. King is the best part of Beale Street, and that’s saying something because the film is full of great performances. Honestly, I found that film to be much better than Moonlight, Barry Jenkins’s previous Oscar-winning film. The only thing that might have kept King from winning was one of the women from The Favourite being left out. As it is, Stone and Weisz (both excellent) will split votes ensuring King gets the win.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book, Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born, Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Sam Rockwell, Vice

My prediction: Mahershala Ali

My pick and favorite: Sam Elliott

Green Book has gone from favorite to afterthought this awards season, but I think it’ll still pick up an award for Ali. Ali is fine, but I would love to see Elliott pick up this award as a kind of lifetime achievement award, not to mention he provides some of the most emotional moments of A Star Is Born. I doubt he wins, though. And I have no clue what the Academy was thinking nominating Rockwell. He’s okay as George W. Bush, but he’s such an afterthought in that movie. Why not nominate Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther? I would much rather have Marvel’s most compelling villain in years over Rockwell’s SNL-worthy impression of Bush.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma, Glenn Close, The Wife, Olivia Colman, The Favourite, Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born, and Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My prediction, pick, and (pun not intended) favorite: Olivia Colman

Glenn Close has been the front runner for this for a while, and she’s still very likely going to win. But I just think that not enough people have seen The Wife (odds are you haven’t even heard of it), and it’s certainly not a very talked about film. Colman could piggyback on that Adapted Screenplay award as evidence of the voters’ love of her film. Also, when voters see that they have to choose between Stone and Weisz for Supporting, they may feel inclined to vote for Colman for Best Actress so that at least one amazing performance from The Favourite is rewarded. Then again, perhaps A Star Is Born gains some last minute momentum and Gaga wins. Any of those three would not surprise me.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice, Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born, Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate, Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

My prediction: Rami Malek

My pick: Christian Bale

My favorite: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)

This category angered me the most. Why did Dafoe and Mortensen get nominated over Hawke? It makes no sense to me. None of them have a chance of winning, but it’s the principle. There’s nothing wrong with Dafoe or Mortensen’s performances (well, Mortensen’s is nothing special), but Hawke is doing some of the best work of his career, and it’s like no one cares. Anyway, I think Malek will win, though I don’t understand the overwhelming love that performance is getting. I just couldn’t get past the fake teeth they made him wear. If this was an award for “Best Performance Despite a Ridiculous Set of Fake Teeth” I’d be all for it. As it is, I didn’t find it to be the best of the year. I’d rather see Bale win, but he already has an Oscar, so I think it’ll be Malek.

Best Picture

Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

My prediction: Roma

My pick: Black Panther

My favorite: First Reformed

*For some reason this last paragraph is bold no matter what I do. Blame blogger, not me.
I'm just going with the same logic I used with Best Director with this pick. People can't stop praising the film, so they'll probably give it Best Picture. The only competition, in my opinion, is from Green Book and A Star Is Born. It just doesn't seem like those two movies are very popular with the Academy. Neither one of them is nominated for Best Director, and that's never a good sign. But I could be wrong (and probably will be). No matter what, my favorite films won't be winning anything come Oscar night. Maybe next year the Academy will see things my way.