And the Oscar (Maybe, Probably Not) Goes To...

*This is the article I annually write for my local newspaper. I'm including it on my website this year. Also, I got lazy and just wrote the movie title for the screenplay awards instead of writing out each nominee.

The Academy Awards are this Sunday, so it’s time for my annual article weighing in on the nominees and predicting the winners. This year is a bit different for two reasons. First, I disagree with these nominations more than ever before. I know my tastes are hardly mainstream, but only one film out of my top ten (Black Panther) was nominated for Best Picture. Some of my honorable mentions are there, but I can’t get over the lack of respect shown for First Reformed, You Were Never Really Here, and Annihilation. But then again, it took me a while to come up with my top ten list because very few movies clicked with me last year, so maybe the Academy members went through the same issue.

Second, speaking of Academy members, they added a ton of them since the #OscarsSoWhite controversy a couple of years ago, so predicting the winners is getting harder each year. Add to that the fact that there is no clear front runner, or even a clear head-to-head race, and you have a perfect storm of uncertainty. I know I point out that I’m not all that great at predicting the winners every year in this article, but I sincerely mean it when I say I’m blindly guessing with a few of these. Normally, I am aware of a clear favorite for nearly every category, and there’s one, maybe two other possibilities. This year, it truly seems like anything and anyone could win in every category.

That written, I’m still going to try. And even if I’m not crazy about all the nominees this year, I didn’t find any of them to be bad movies. I was just disappointed by many of them. I expected a transcendent experience watching Roma. I thought Rami Malek would make me believe he was Freddie Mercury in Bohemian Rhapsody. I was sure Vice was going to make me laugh, infuriate me with its exposure of the truth, and give me Christian Bale’s greatest performance yet. You get the idea: I did not get a strong reaction from most of these films. I did like most of them, however. Black Panther is my favorite of the bunch, but I also enjoyed A Star Is Born, The Favourite, and BlacKkKlansman. With all my complaining out of the way, here are my predictions in the usual format: my prediction, my pick from the nominees, and my favorite overall (including unnominated movies and people).

Best Original Screenplay

The Favourite, First Reformed, Green Book, Roma, and Vice

My prediction: The Favourite

My pick and favorite: First Reformed

The screenplay categories have become the spots for voters to reward movies they like a lot but don’t want to give Best Picture to. This is why it’s likely The Favourite will win. A lot of voters loved the twisted historical film, but it’s probably too weird to win Best Picture, so they’ll just give it Best Original Screenplay, even though First Reformed deserves it so much more.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk, and A Star Is Born

My prediction and pick: BlacKkKlansman

My favorite: Annihilation

Just like with Original Screenplay, I think the Academy will use this category to reward a film without giving it Best Picture. In this case, I think it has a lot to do with Spike Lee. I don’t think he’ll win Best Director, but I think they still want to honor him with Best Adapted Screenplay.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Roma, Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite, Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman, Adam McKay, Vice, and Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War

My prediction: Alfonso Cuarón

My pick: Yorgos Lanthimos

My favorite: Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)

Filmmakers and critics have been very vocal about their love for Roma this year, mainly focusing on Cuarón’s direction. The words “genius” and “masterpiece” are commonplace when this film is brought up, so he’s one of the few safe bets this year. I was just happy to see Lanthimos get nominated, though I think his previous work (The Lobster, Dogtooth) is more impressive. And Pawlikowski getting nominated instead of Paul Schrader or Lynne Ramsay is ridiculous.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice, Marina de Tavira, Roma, Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk, Emma Stone, The Favourite, and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

My prediction, pick, and favorite: Regina King

This is another category that is one of the few safe bets. King is the best part of Beale Street, and that’s saying something because the film is full of great performances. Honestly, I found that film to be much better than Moonlight, Barry Jenkins’s previous Oscar-winning film. The only thing that might have kept King from winning was one of the women from The Favourite being left out. As it is, Stone and Weisz (both excellent) will split votes ensuring King gets the win.

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book, Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman, Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born, Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, and Sam Rockwell, Vice

My prediction: Mahershala Ali

My pick and favorite: Sam Elliott

Green Book has gone from favorite to afterthought this awards season, but I think it’ll still pick up an award for Ali. Ali is fine, but I would love to see Elliott pick up this award as a kind of lifetime achievement award, not to mention he provides some of the most emotional moments of A Star Is Born. I doubt he wins, though. And I have no clue what the Academy was thinking nominating Rockwell. He’s okay as George W. Bush, but he’s such an afterthought in that movie. Why not nominate Michael B. Jordan for Black Panther? I would much rather have Marvel’s most compelling villain in years over Rockwell’s SNL-worthy impression of Bush.

Best Actress

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma, Glenn Close, The Wife, Olivia Colman, The Favourite, Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born, and Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

My prediction, pick, and (pun not intended) favorite: Olivia Colman

Glenn Close has been the front runner for this for a while, and she’s still very likely going to win. But I just think that not enough people have seen The Wife (odds are you haven’t even heard of it), and it’s certainly not a very talked about film. Colman could piggyback on that Adapted Screenplay award as evidence of the voters’ love of her film. Also, when voters see that they have to choose between Stone and Weisz for Supporting, they may feel inclined to vote for Colman for Best Actress so that at least one amazing performance from The Favourite is rewarded. Then again, perhaps A Star Is Born gains some last minute momentum and Gaga wins. Any of those three would not surprise me.

Best Actor

Christian Bale, Vice, Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born, Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate, Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody, and Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

My prediction: Rami Malek

My pick: Christian Bale

My favorite: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)

This category angered me the most. Why did Dafoe and Mortensen get nominated over Hawke? It makes no sense to me. None of them have a chance of winning, but it’s the principle. There’s nothing wrong with Dafoe or Mortensen’s performances (well, Mortensen’s is nothing special), but Hawke is doing some of the best work of his career, and it’s like no one cares. Anyway, I think Malek will win, though I don’t understand the overwhelming love that performance is getting. I just couldn’t get past the fake teeth they made him wear. If this was an award for “Best Performance Despite a Ridiculous Set of Fake Teeth” I’d be all for it. As it is, I didn’t find it to be the best of the year. I’d rather see Bale win, but he already has an Oscar, so I think it’ll be Malek.

Best Picture

Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice

My prediction: Roma

My pick: Black Panther

My favorite: First Reformed

*For some reason this last paragraph is bold no matter what I do. Blame blogger, not me.
I'm just going with the same logic I used with Best Director with this pick. People can't stop praising the film, so they'll probably give it Best Picture. The only competition, in my opinion, is from Green Book and A Star Is Born. It just doesn't seem like those two movies are very popular with the Academy. Neither one of them is nominated for Best Director, and that's never a good sign. But I could be wrong (and probably will be). No matter what, my favorite films won't be winning anything come Oscar night. Maybe next year the Academy will see things my way.

Top Ten of 2018

I always have trouble coming up with my top ten list, and this year has been worse than ever. It’s not that there weren’t plenty of great movies (there were), but nothing stood out far and above for me this year. Usually, I can count on one clear favorite movie of the year, but that’s not the case this year. In fact, my top film changed just yesterday after I re-watched a film on my list. Depending on a given day, this list could be very different, and that includes the top spot. In fact, you should really just consider the first four films listed as a four-way tie for my favorite movie. I couldn’t bring myself to actually have a four-way tie, though, so this is the order I settled on right before I published the list.

Before I get to the list, I always like to post a reminder that this is my personal list of my favorite films of the year. This does not mean that I find these films perfect. In fact, a lot of films I chose are not as technically good as films left off my list (for example, Roma is considered by critics and filmmakers alike to be a masterpiece, and while I recognize the technical beauty of the film, it did not resonate with me). Also, I tend to look for two main qualities when it comes to a film: did it make me think and did it entertain me? If it does both, then it’s near the top of the list. But if a movie is entertaining enough even without being all that thought-provoking, it can still end up on my list because I believe spectacle is important in cinema. I like watching movies that allow for analysis, but I also like turning my brain off an simply being wowed. With that written, here are my favorite films of 2018.

(Final note: I don’t want to waste much space on plot summaries, so don’t expect much. If you haven’t heard of some of these, consider checking them out. Or don’t. No big deal.)

1. First Reformed

This little seen film from Paul Schrader (writer of Taxi Driver) about a priest (Ethan Hawke) dealing with multiple issues (the environment, personal regret, alcoholism, faith, the changing church, etc.) stuck with me long after I watched it. I did not think of it as my favorite film until I watched it again recently and appreciated the style of Schrader’s filmmaking. The mostly static camera created a sense of a world existing that the characters were simply passing through (which reinforced the theme of the world that remains when we are gone). It wasn’t style for style’s sake, and it made me think even more about what the movie was all about. What put the movie over the top for me was Hawke’s performance. Finally, this is Ingmar Bergman by way of Taxi Driver. That might seem like a strange combination, but it worked completely for me, making First Reformed my favorite film of the year.

2. You Were Never Really Here

This is another film that I loved after watching it a second time. Writer/director Lynne Ramsay provides a masterclass in “less is more” filmmaking. We’re given just enough snippets and moments to piece together a backstory and full character while also being given glimpses and aftermaths of violence that are much more effective than blatant scenes of gore. And Joaquin Phoenix continues to be one of the most interesting actors working today.

3. Annihilation

For most of the year, this was my favorite film. I have a soft spot for sci-fi, especially smart sci-fi. When you add a trippy, mesmerizing ending, then it becomes one of my favorite films of the year. And honestly, if you ask me to make this list again in a week, any of my top four films could end up as number one. Writer/director Alex Garland has quickly become one of the best science-fiction filmmakers in Hollywood.

4. Mission: Impossible - Fallout

This is the movie I had in mind when I brought up spectacle. The series somehow manages to keep one-upping the previous entry, mainly thanks to Tom Cruise’s devotion (or death wish?) to practical stunts. This entry also stands out for being an actual sequel with callbacks going all the way back to the first film. The best way to sum up my love of this film is this: it’s a two and a half hour long action movie, and I wish it was an hour longer.

5. The Sisters Brothers

I’m a big fan of westerns, especially off-beat entries, and The Sisters Brothers definitely fits that bill. There are plenty of typical western elements (gun fights, bounty hunting, gold panning), but it’s more about the relationship between the titular brothers. John C. Reilly’s character repeatedly talks about his feelings to his more rough brother (Joaquin Phoenix). It’s the rare western that provides everything you want from the genre while also providing welcome surprises.

6. Hereditary

Speaking of surprises, Hereditary was one of the only films this year to truly shock me. For spoiler reasons, I can’t get into it specifically, but if you’ve seen the film, you can probably guess which moment got me. That’s always welcome, but it’s the overall creepiness of the film that places it in my top ten. Having a horror film in my top ten has become an unintended tradition for me, and nothing got under my skin or surprised me like this movie. Also, Toni Collette is amazing.

7. Solo: A Star Wars Story

The Star Wars franchise has me very conflicted these days. I’ve been disappointed by the main films, yet I love the side movies. Solo is one of the most purely enjoyable entries in the series. Some have deemed it unnecessary (yes, some elements, like how he got his last name, are not needed), but since when did a film have to be necessary to be enjoyed. No, I don’t need to know how Han got his blaster or how he met Chewbacca, but I had a good time finding out, and that’s all I wanted from this film.

8. Aquaman

This one might leave some people scratching their head. Believe me, I never thought Aquaman would end up in my top ten. The weirdness of the film won me over. Director James Wan leans heavily into the underwater world, using influences like H. P. Lovecraft to present a very different looking comic book movie. Sure, there is a lot of CG work, but it’s used for good: Aquaman gave us Dolph Lundgren riding a sea-dragon and an octopus playing drums. I had a lot of fun with this movie, and while others found it to have too much plot, too much CG...just too much everything, I found it to be the most entertaining comic book movie of the year.

9. Black Panther

Black Panther could easily have taken the spot above Aquaman, and it only didn’t because Aquaman is a weirder movie, and I like weird stuff. Honestly, “Black Panther” is the better film, and I still love that it is basically a James Bond film within the MCU. I just had slightly more fun watching Aquaman, and fun matters to me. Black Panther is still one of the best comic book movies in recent memory, and I love that it stands on its own rather than simply playing a part in the Marvel ninety movie master plan. The fact that this film is on my list at all should be a testament to its worth as I typically have a “one comic book movie only” rule for my top ten list.

10. The Death of Stalin

I also have an unofficial “at least one comedy” rule for my list, and that’s where The Death of Stalin comes into play. If you like Veep or In the Loop, then this is the movie for you. Writer/director Armando Iannucci continues to deliver the funniest political satire. The only problem is that it’s possible to become a bit depressed by the history of the events portrayed, but the comedy is the point. What can we do but laugh?

Honorable Mention: First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk, Instant Family, A Star Is Born, Paddington 2, The Rider, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, BlacKkKlansman, The Favourite, Mary Queen of Scots