2025 Academy Awards Predictions

This is a special year for the Academy Awards for me because this is the first time in years that I plan on watching the whole show instead of just watching clips the next day, and that’s solely because Conan O’Brien is hosting. I’m a huge Conan fan, and I know he’ll bring some of his weird ass humor to the event. In general, I find the Oscars to be a tough watch, but I think he’ll add some much needed silliness to the whole affair.

As for the movies themselves, I thought this was a good year for film. I need to stop writing that, though, because so many movies come out each year it’s kind of hard for there to be a “bad” year for film. I suppose there are times when the big awards movies don’t jive with my tastes, but since they’ve expanded the amount of nominees and the membership of the Academy, that’s been more and more rare.

For this year, four of the nominees for Best Picture were on my personal top ten list, and I enjoyed all the nominees, even if some weren’t exactly my thing. I was mainly excited that my favorite film of the year, A Complete Unknown, received so much love, and hopefully it takes home a few awards. 

But who knows? The other aspect that the expanded membership has added is uncertainty. In years past, it was fairly easy to predict most of the main winners, especially Best Picture. Worst case scenario you could narrow it down to two films. Now, it’s wide open. I’ve seen clickbait articles making the argument for four different possible winners this year, and I personally don’t know what to pick. As I type this, I plan on just going with my gut when I get to the prediction part of the article. 

The uncertainty makes the prediction process much more difficult, but it makes the show itself immensely more interesting. So I’m looking forward to a few surprises and a lot of silly shit from Conan. 

As usual, I’ll make my prediction, pick my favorite of the nominees, and also name my favorite overall (in the case that my favorite wasn’t nominated at all). 

For a full list of nominees, click here. Or, you know, just Google it, you psycho.

Cinematography

Prediction: The Brutalist

Pick and Favorite: Nosferatu

Original Score

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: The Brutalist 

I also loved the Challengers score, and I cannot believe it wasn’t nominated.

Original Song

Prediction: Elton John

I don’t know how much the Emilia Pérez fallout and double nomination will affect this category, so I’m going with the safe Elton John choice. I have no favorite here because I didn’t listen to most of these, and I think this is a stupid category, in general. I would rather see a Best Use of Music in a Movie that could reward the best needle drops of pre-existing music.

Visual Effects

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: Dune: Part Two

Dune: Part Two deserves something, right?

Original Screenplay

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: The Substance

Hoping for a surprise with this one.

Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: Nickel Boys

Pick and Favorite: A Complete Unknown

Documentary

Prediction: Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat

Full disclosure: this category is a huge blindspot for me each year, as I just can’t find the time to watch most, or, as was the case this year, any of these nominees. 

Animated Feature

Prediction: Flow

Pick and Favorite: Memoir of a Snail

International Feature

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: I’m Still Here

Supporting Actor

Prediction: Kieran Culkin

Pick and Favorite: Edward Norton

Supporting Actress

Prediction: Zoe Saldaña

Pick: Monica Barbaro

Favorite: Margaret Qualley

Actor

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: Timothée Chalamet

Fingers crossed that the AI-enchanced accent shit with The Brutalist gives Chalamet the edge.

Actress

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: Demi Moore

Director

Prediction: Brady Corbet

Pick and Favorite: Coralie Fargeat

Picture:

Prediction, Pick, and Favorite: A Complete Unknown

Okay, this is just wishful thinking. But I did hear about this weighted voting thing they’re doing, and there’s a chance that The Brutalist and Anora are either really high or really low on a lot of lists while A Complete Unknown could be in the top three on a lot of ballots giving it the win. Probably not, but I want to see it win. I feel like I’m way off this year, though. I could see Brody winning, and Anora taking Actress, Director, and Picture. Or maybe it’s Conclave. Nothing would surprise me. 

So that’s that. Follow along and see how badly I did this Sunday! But who knows? Last year, I went 13 for 15, so maybe I'm on a roll with these.

And, as always: Hi, Mom!

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2023 Oscar Predictions

I care less and less about the Oscars each year. It’s hard to get excited about an awards show for the best movies of the year that waits until almost halfway through March to announce their winners; and this is coming from an admitted procrastinator. Still, writing an Oscars article over a decade ago is what got me started in film writing. So, for the few people who want to see how I do with my predictions (hi, Mom!), here is my Oscar preview. I’m sticking with my usual format: I’ll make my prediction, name my favorite nominee, and name my favorite overall (as sometimes my favorite isn’t even nominated). This year, however, I will just list all that stuff together and save my comments for the very end of the article just to keep things neater. Oh, and I’m not listing all the nominees. Google that shit if you want to know them all.

Best Cinematography

Prediction: Tár

My Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

My Overall Favorite: Nope

Best Original Score

Prediction: Babylon

My Pick: Babylon

My Overall Favorite: Crimes of the Future

Best Original Song

Prediction: Naatu Naatu

My Pick: Naatu Naatu

My Overall Favorite: Uh, Naatu Naatu, I guess. Look, I do not care about this one at all.

Best Visual Effects

Prediction: Avatar: The Way of Water

My Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water

My Overall Favorite: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Screenplay

Prediction: The Banshees of Inisherin

My Pick: The Banshees of Inisherin

My Overall Favorite: The Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay

Prediction: Women Talking

My Pick: Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

My Overall Favorite: The Northman

Best Documentary

Prediction: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

My Pick: Fire of Love

My Overall Favorite: I Didn’t See You There

Best Animated Feature

Prediction: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

My Pick: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

My Overall Favorite: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

Best International Feature

Prediction: All Quiet on the Western Front

My Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

My Overall Favorite: Decision to Leave

Best Supporting Actor

Prediction: Ke Huy Quan

My Pick: Ke Huy Quan

My Overall Favorite: Ke Huy Quan

Best Supporting Actress

Prediction: Stephanie Hsu

My Pick: Kerry Condon

My Overall Favorite: Kerry Condon

Best Actor

Prediction: Colin Farrell

My Pick: Colin Farrell

My Overall Favorite: Colin Farrell

Best Actress

Prediction: Cate Blanchett

My Pick: Michelle Yeoh

My Overall Favorite: Michelle Yeoh

Best Director

Prediction: The Daniels

My Pick: The Daniels

My Overall Favorite: Damien Chazelle

Best Picture

Prediction: Everything Everywhere All at Once

My Pick: The Banshees of Inisherin

My Overall Favorite: The Banshees of Inisherin

So, that’s it. Typically, I do not do well with these predictions, and I doubt this year will be different. As far as the nominations in general are concerned, I was pleasantly surprised by a few of them this year (Triangle of Sadness and All Quiet on the Western Front having so many noms was nice), and there were the usual head-scratchers (Top Gun: Maverick for Best Adapted Screenplay?!). I have a hard time these days caring about all this like I used to when I was younger. There was a time when the Oscars could enrage me. I’m thinking about Adrien Brody beating Daniel Day-Lewis (Gangs of New York), and Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan, and Chicago beating Gangs of New York, and The Artist winning, and Sean Penn over Mickey Rourke, and Michael Keaton losing to Eddie Redmayne, and DiCaprio losing to Jamie Foxx, and…okay, the Oscars can still piss me off. 

But over the years, I learned that the voting process is highly political and there are ads purchased and campaigns ran and all that shit. But mainly, I just got older. I’ve got kids and whatnot these days, so I’ve lost the emotional capacity to care that much about who wins the Hollywood popularity contest each year. I still find it fun, and I will always be interested in all the awards stuff, but my days of letting them anger me are thankfully over. So maybe I’ll get a few of these right this year, but as far as the most deserving people winning? I know what my favorites were, and that’s enough for me.